Geography and Environmental Studies

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Browsing Geography and Environmental Studies by Author "Kelbe, B.E."

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    Spatial estimation of future temperature changes over Africa
    (1995) Mkhonza, Wiseman Sinothi.; Kelbe, B.E.; Magi, L.M.
    Climate has been changing since time immemorial. However, these long-term changes are very important because of some of the consequences to mankind. Because the changes are small ones in relation to daily experiences, many people find it difficult to perceive and accept these changes. This might cause doubts in the minds of many people in the proclaimed global warming which now occupies numerous agenda of institutions and organisations concerned with the future planning and management of our planet. The first chapters of this thesis review the theories of climate change and attempts to determine temperature change predictions specifically for Africa. This study neither proclaims nor disclaims this notion of global warming. Instead, it restricts itself to estimating the spatio-temporal patterns of temperature changes for Africa from an observational perspective. Analysis of recognised records of annual surface air temperature for numerous weather stations in Africa were obtained and used to derive models of the station temperature changes over the past four decades. These models were used to predict temperature changes up to the year 2000. The individual station predictions were used to derive spatial estimates of temperature change using the IDRISI - Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provided by the Clarke University through the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP): Global Change Database Project (GCDP): Pilot Project for Africa. The spatial extent of temperature changes was derived using Theissen polygon approximation. The derived models of climatic temperature change for various stations indicated that 58% of the African main land will not experience temperature change greater than half of a degree(-0.45° to 0.45°C) by the year 2000. There was an even spread (52% and 48%) of the stations showing decreasing and increasing temperature trends, respectively. However, 30% of all the stations showed large increasing (0.46° to 2.45°C) temperatures, while fewer stations (12%) showed decreasing (-3.02° to -0.46°C) temperatures. The spatiai pattern of temperature changes were derived and an attempt was made to compare features of the climate with specific patterns of temperature change. The North-west and Zaire Air Boundaries, which are zones of moisture discontinuity during the month of July, were compared to regional patterns of increasing temperature trends. Attempts to relate predicted temperature changes with rainfall and monthly temperatures showed no significant correlation. Stations with short records and large cyclic variability tend to produce unstable models and the implications of these trends were discussed.
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    A water resources and sanitation systems source book with special reference to KwaZulu Natal: Parts 1-6
    (1999) Alcock, Peter Glen; Kelbe, B.E.
    (a)Motivation for the project It is well known that water, perhaps to a slightly lesser extent in Natal/KwaZulu, is a major constraint on South Africa's economic development. To find new sources of water (groundwater), to best utilize what is available (supply and demand), and to safeguard the quality of our water supplies is of paramount importance. It follows that water resources might not be properly utilized and protected in the future, if the recording and collation of water and sanitation information is deficient. Since water is vital to South Africa's well-being, so too is information. (b)Aims of the project The main aim of the project was to compile a bibliographic database and source book in terms of water and sanitation systems, with special reference to Natal/KwaZulu. Natal and KwaZulu as a specific region received major emphasis in the project, although relevant material from across South Africa and in some cases, southern Africa, was included. The word "source" is stressed in that the project was intended as a reference work either as a source of data in its own right, or as a source of further information. An important aim of the project was to present information in a multi-disciplinary format, in an attempt to provide an holistic perspective for the reader with regard to a broad range of sub-disciplines. The material covered in the project varies, for example, from bioclimatic regions (groups) to sanitation. With the increasing complexity of the modern world, no single discipline can hope to encompass all, or even most aspects of water and sanitation. Readers therefore, will find valuable information on allied disciplines - information which was often difficult to acquire and to verify. In summary, the main purpose of the project was to provide the user with a conceptual framework within which to obtain further information. This applies particularly to the environmental manager who must integrate material - written by the individual researcher following his chosen research path - in an holistic manner in practical day-to-day situations. Another primary aim was to sharpen perceptions of the importance of water and sanitation information (information awareness) in a broad spectrum of water-related disciplines in a largely semi-arid land; and to assist in the best possible use of water resources through knowledge of pertinent information. It is the writer's belief that full use is not being made of extant information resulting in, at worst, the omission of significant facts necessary for the overall success of specific projects. There is evidence to suggest that certain civil engineering (consulting) firms are particularly at risk in this regard. The project accordingly, attempted to bridge this gap by providing both scientific and planning data. Some emphasis was placed on water supply and sanitation systems in black settled areas. A particularly important aim of the project was to retrieve, and to alert users to the increasing proportion of material now appearing in the form of "grey literature". The latter consists of unpublished or internal reports (such as civil engineering reports) which are a valuable source of practical data. These reports are seldom examined by a wider audience. The explosion in grey literature in South Africa - as in other countries - implies that determined efforts are necessary to locate the material in the first instance. In the field of water resources planning much of the information may only be available as grey literature. The sole discovery method, frequently necessary, involves the physical searching of the libraries and information storage areas of numerous consulting engineering firms and similar sources. The retrieval of grey literature, accordingly, is a major challenge facing the planning (and scientific) community. A further objective of the project was to gather information on older technologies and procedures, which together with modern scientific concepts, might profitably be re-examined for possible future use especially in rural areas. Reference is made here for example to hydraulic rams (rampumps) and sand storage dams. (c) Results of the project Successful management decisions in terms of water resources require a multi-disciplinary approach. The project therefore attempted to mirror these issues*. The selection of items for inclusion in the source book (and to some extent the database), reflects the personal approach of the writer within the ultimate constraints of time and funds. Such a selection may not always satisfy the expert in a specific discipline, although the book was written with the general scientific or field practitioner in mind. The current project may be viewed as a somewhat novel approach to the complex problems of information awareness and retrieval. The project involved a multi-disciplinary "voyage of discovery" with the only real parameter best described as "the more one searches, the more one finds"; or "more money and more time = more references". To this end, 78 libraries and other sources of information in Natal/KwaZulu were physically searched, book by book, report by report. A further 32 organizations in Natal/KwaZulu and as far afield as Windhoek were contacted by fax, phone or post in order to obtain information. Major deficiencies were noted at certain libraries in terms of the value placed on unpublished material, and the necessity for proper storage and a listing of the material. It became evident that there is a wealth of information "available" in this country, a considerable proportion of which, is buried and therefore "lost" to all but the most determined researcher. It was likewise apparent that certain categories of information (mainly grey literature), are being lost at more or less the same rate that the information is being generated. Only a fraction of all the literature examined could in any manner whatsoever, be regarded as a review paper or report per se. There is a pressing need for the compilation of review documents which summarize previous research in detail, thereby providing a benchmark analysis for use by the expert and non-expert alike. Following directly from these problems, a future aim of the project is to "dislodge" additional material, especially grey literature, which was not found (or available) during the previous information-search phase, and which could be incorporated into a later edition. It is the writer's opinion that serious efforts will have to be made to inculcate an "information awareness", particularly amongst young researchers and those working alone, or in isolated surroundings. This applies especially in the field of water resources planning where the wheel is sometimes "re-invented", with surveys being repeated over a number of years - or the results thereof completely ignored due to a lack of awareness of older reports. It is hoped that the present publication will to some extent succeed in addressing these issues, by revealing not only the information p_er se, but also the sources of such information. In essence, it is true to say that much emphasis is placed (at large) on the production of data, with a seemingly limited concern for the collation and synthesis of information. South African universities are particularly at fault in this regard. The source book and especially the database will also assist in the identification of gaps in water and sanitation research, and as outlined above, will likewise assist in the discovery of older technologies worth re-examining. The search procedure for the bibliographic database was accordingly extended to 1900, primarily to find papers which discuss the older technologies. An example of the identification of a gap in scientific literature concerns groundwater in Natal/KwaZulu. There is no up-to-date (overall) report describing groundwater in the province as a whole. Very few scientific papers were found on groundwater in Natal/KwaZulu, with the literature available, consisting largely of consulting engineering reports, research reports, conference papers and theses. This material is difficult to locate especially when time or resources are limited. It is encouraging to note however, that the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry is presently involved in a major groundwater study across South Africa (including Natal/KwaZulu). The project also revealed the extent to which information tends to be "library" specific. With the exception of the major (mainly university) libraries in Natal/KwaZulu, there appeared to be little effective communication between libraries in the province - with the result that researchers and especially planners associated with a given library, were often unaware of the type of material held by another library. In some instances, the very existence of the library or resource centre was unknown*. A primary advantage of the current project is the availability of data in one locality - with material from the various libraries and information sources examined - to be found in the database or in the book. This information is presented to a wider audience. The project therefore enables the individual researcher equipped with an ordinary personal computer to physically possess and to use (at his own convenience) all the multi-disciplinary data derived during the programme. The possibility exists that some organizations may wish to use sections of the database as "seed data" to develop their own highly specialized databases. Interest has been expressed for example, in using the literature dealing with schistosomiasis (bilharziasis), and which only covered certain topics, to initiate a computerized bibliography covering all aspects of the disease in southern Africa. Another possibility concerns the literature on urbanization, which mainly refers to demography and the demand for services including water and sanitation.
University of Zululand