Browsing by Author "Makhoba, Bongumusa Prince"

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    The contribution of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to domestic employment levels in South Africa: a Vector Autoregressive Approach
    (University of Zululand, 2018) Makhoba, Bongumusa Prince
    South Africa is a free market economy that promotes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in all of its economic sectors, with the aim of accelerating economic growth and increasing job opportunities. Several empirical works have yielded mixed and controversial results with regard to the effects of FDI on employment and economic growth in both developed and developing countries. The primary focus of this study is to investigate the effect of FDI on domestic employment levels in the context of the South African economy. The analyses of the study were carried out using the annual time series data, covering the period of 1980 to 2015. The macroeconomic variables used in the estimation process of the study include employment, FDI, GDP, inflation, trade openness and unit labour costs. The study employed secondary data from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) database. The study mainly used the Vector Autoregressive/ Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VAR/VECM) approach to conduct empirical analysis. However, the study also employed single equation estimation techniques, including the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Canonical Co-integrating Regression (CCR) models as supporting and confirmatory tools to verify the results produced by the VAR/VECM model. This study provides strong evidence of a significant negative relationship between FDI and employment levels in the South African economy. The results also indicate that employment levels are highly influenced by an increase in economic growth (GDP). Empirical analysis of the study suggests that the effect of economic growth on employment is highly positive and significant in South Africa’s economy. Policy recommendations on this effect are given on the basis of empirical findings obtained from this particular research.
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    Exploring the Role of Fiscal Policy and Sovereign Debt Shocks on Economic Growth among Southern African Developing Communities
    (University of Zululand, 2021) Makhoba, Bongumusa Prince
    Fiscal policy remains a key macroeconomic stabilisation mechanism at the disposal of governments and fiscal policymakers to influence economic activities consistent with balanced and sustainable economic growth. A thorough understanding of the role fiscal policy remains extremely paramount for fiscal authorities to consistently formulate prudent fiscal stimulus packages that enhances sustainable economic expansion. This thesis critically examines the role of fiscal policy and sovereign debt shocks on economic growth in the Southern African Developing Communities (SADC). Over the years, fiscal policy and austerity measures have triggered a deterioration in the fiscal position of these member countries primarily due to the relatively high budget deficits, inducing even further sovereign debt risk in long-term economic prosperity. The phenomenon of fiscal policy has gained immense scholarly popularity among both researchers and policymakers, stimulating intensive debate in the body of literature as to whether fiscal policy has been able stabilise macroeconomic fluctuations across different economies characterised by different phases of economic growth and development. The study starts by giving a thorough background and introduction in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 discusses a detailed review of existing theoretical frameworks on the role of fiscal policy and sovereign debt on economic growth. Chapter 3 analyses the role of fiscal policy and sovereign debt shocks on economic growth in the SADC region. In this chapter, a Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model was estimated using annual data for 13 SADC countries ranging from 2000-2018. The empirical results revealed that government expenditure, employment and public debt has a significant positive influence on economic growth while gross fixed capital formation exerts a negative effect on growth. The findings of the study are consistent with the Keynesian school of thought, which strongly argues that governments use countercyclical expansionary fiscal policy as a credible tool to spur economic activities and stabilise macroeconomic fluctuations during different phases of the business cycle. Chapter 4 estimates a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model to examine a nonlinear effect of public debt on economic growth among SADC members for the period viii 2000-2018. The findings show a significant asymmetric relationship between public debt and economic growth in the SADC region. The results further indicate a debt threshold of 60% at which public debt deters economic growth in SADC region. The empirical results of a linear and nonlinear effect of public debt on growth are consistent with several prior empirical studies conducted across different economies using different methodologies. In line with the Keynesian approach, the results further suggest that fiscal policy plays a central role in augmenting economic activities both in the low-debt regime and high-debt regime, indicating that, indeed, a positive shock in government spending positively influence economic growth in SADC economies, reinforcing the findings of the previous chapter. Furthermore, the results reveal a significant positive impact of public debt on economic growth during the low regime when the debt level is below the threshold of 60%. Moreover, there was a significant negative effect of debt on economic growth during the high-debt regime as debt level reach the threshold of 60%. This result indicates that there is an inverted U-Shape relationship between public debt and economic growth among SADC economies. Chapter 5 empirically interrogates the asymmetric relationships between public debt and economic growth among selected emerging and frontier SADC economies over the period 2000-2018. In this chapter, a Smooth Transition Regression (STAR) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Redistributed Lag (NARDL) is estimated to analyse the asymmetric effect of public debt on economic growth among selected SADC economies. The results revealed mixed findings on nonlinearity among emerging and frontier SADC members. The findings indicate a concave relationship between debt and economic growth in South Africa, while Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe showed a U-shape relationship between debt and economic growth. This implies that public debt exerts a significant positive influence on economic growth during low-debt regime while there is a negative effect of debt on economic growth during a high-debt regime in South Africa. Conversely, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe show a negative effect of debt during the low-debt regime and a positive influence during a high-debt regime. Malawi, however, showed a positive impact of debt on growth during both low-debt and high-debt regimes.
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    Exploring the Role of Fiscal Policy and Sovereign Debt Shocks on Economic Growth among Southern African Developing Communities
    (University of Zululand, 2021) Makhoba, Bongumusa Prince
    Fiscal policy remains a key macroeconomic stabilisation mechanism at the disposal of governments and fiscal policymakers to influence economic activities consistent with balanced and sustainable economic growth. A thorough understanding of the role fiscal policy remains extremely paramount for fiscal authorities to consistently formulate prudent fiscal stimulus packages that enhances sustainable economic expansion. This thesis critically examines the role of fiscal policy and sovereign debt shocks on economic growth in the Southern African Developing Communities (SADC). Over the years, fiscal policy and austerity measures have triggered a deterioration in the fiscal position of these member countries primarily due to the relatively high budget deficits, inducing even further sovereign debt risk in long-term economic prosperity. The phenomenon of fiscal policy has gained immense scholarly popularity among both researchers and policymakers, stimulating intensive debate in the body of literature as to whether fiscal policy has been able stabilise macroeconomic fluctuations across different economies characterised by different phases of economic growth and development. The study starts by giving a thorough background and introduction in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 discusses a detailed review of existing theoretical frameworks on the role of fiscal policy and sovereign debt on economic growth. Chapter 3 analyses the role of fiscal policy and sovereign debt shocks on economic growth in the SADC region. In this chapter, a Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model was estimated using annual data for 13 SADC countries ranging from 2000-2018. The empirical results revealed that government expenditure, employment and public debt has a significant positive influence on economic growth while gross fixed capital formation exerts a negative effect on growth. The findings of the study are consistent with the Keynesian school of thought, which strongly argues that governments use countercyclical expansionary fiscal policy as a credible tool to spur economic activities and stabilise macroeconomic fluctuations during different phases of the business cycle. Chapter 4 estimates a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model to examine a nonlinear effect of public debt on economic growth among SADC members for the period viii 2000-2018. The findings show a significant asymmetric relationship between public debt and economic growth in the SADC region. The results further indicate a debt threshold of 60% at which public debt deters economic growth in SADC region. The empirical results of a linear and nonlinear effect of public debt on growth are consistent with several prior empirical studies conducted across different economies using different methodologies. In line with the Keynesian approach, the results further suggest that fiscal policy plays a central role in augmenting economic activities both in the low-debt regime and high-debt regime, indicating that, indeed, a positive shock in government spending positively influence economic growth in SADC economies, reinforcing the findings of the previous chapter. Furthermore, the results reveal a significant positive impact of public debt on economic growth during the low regime when the debt level is below the threshold of 60%. Moreover, there was a significant negative effect of debt on economic growth during the high-debt regime as debt level reach the threshold of 60%. This result indicates that there is an inverted U-Shape relationship between public debt and economic growth among SADC economies. Chapter 5 empirically interrogates the asymmetric relationships between public debt and economic growth among selected emerging and frontier SADC economies over the period 2000-2018. In this chapter, a Smooth Transition Regression (STAR) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Redistributed Lag (NARDL) is estimated to analyse the asymmetric effect of public debt on economic growth among selected SADC economies. The results revealed mixed findings on nonlinearity among emerging and frontier SADC members. The findings indicate a concave relationship between debt and economic growth in South Africa, while Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe showed a U-shape relationship between debt and economic growth. This implies that public debt exerts a significant positive influence on economic growth during low-debt regime while there is a negative effect of debt on economic growth during a high-debt regime in South Africa. Conversely, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe show a negative effect of debt during the low-debt regime and a positive influence during a high-debt regime. Malawi, however, showed a positive impact of debt on growth during both low-debt and high-debt regimes.